This is blamed on everything from the influx of foreign players to excessive salaries to tactical ignorance and even poor skills. But this search for a reason for failure is to miss a basic point: England has not suddenly started failing. In fact, England has only truly flopped twice.
This misperception has a number of causes, but I won't go into that now; what I care about is correcting the record. England do not flop at World Cups on a regular basis. In fact, they hardly ever do.
England are, in fact, a successful international team which has usually come up short against very good opponents, often in unfortunate circumstances. Let's look at which teams have actually eliminated England since their World Cup debut in 1950, and how those teams subsequently performed.
Who has eliminated England over the years?
| Year |
Eliminated in
|
Eliminated by
|
Position reached by team eliminating England
|
| 1950 |
Group stage
|
Spain
|
4th
|
| 1954 |
Q-finals
|
Uruguay
|
4th
|
| 1958 |
Group stage
|
Brazil
|
Winners
|
USSR
|
Quarter-finals
|
||
| 1962 |
Quarter-finals
|
Brazil
|
Winners
|
| 1966 |
Winners
|
-
|
-
|
| 1970 |
Quarter-finals
|
W Germany
|
3rd
|
| 1974 |
DNQ
|
Poland
|
3rd
|
| 1978 |
DNQ
|
Italy
|
4th
|
| 1982 |
Second round
|
W Germany
|
2nd
|
| 1986 |
Quarter-finals
|
Argentina
|
Winners
|
| 1990 |
Semi-finals
|
W Germany
|
Winners
|
| 1994 |
DNQ
|
Norway
|
Group stage
|
The Netherlands
|
Quarter-finals
|
||
| 1998 |
Second round
|
Argentina
|
Quarter-finals
|
| 2002 |
Quarter-finals
|
Brazil
|
Winners
|
| 2006 |
Quarter-finals
|
Portugal
|
4th
|
| 2010 |
Second round
|
Germany
|
3rd
|
| 2014 |
Group stage
|
Costa Rica
|
Quarter-finals
|
Uruguay
|
Round of 16
|
England lose to good teams
The first thing that jumps out is that England tend to get knocked out by sides that do well, including the eventual champions or runners-up five times. On only four occasions were they eliminated by a team which failed to reach the last four.
Even the most frequently touted failures, the consecutive non-qualificatons in 1974 and 1978, are less egregious when considering the quality of the teams which eliminated them. In 1974, Poland went on to finish third, while in 1978 Italy finished fourth.
The four "failure" tournaments were in 1958, 1994, 1998 and 2014, and two of those can be discounted to some extent.
In 1958 they were eliminated 1-0 in a playoff by the USSR, who would be crowned European champions two years later. In 1998 they lost on penalties against Argentina in a thrilling match. So both were disappointing defeats but hardly disastrous under-performances.
I would argue that leaves only 1994 and 2014 should be considered genuine flops. Let's take a closer look.
1994: Norwegian disaster
In 1994, Graham Taylor's reign effectively ended when the side was eliminated in qualifying by Norway and the Netherlands. Norway went on to score just one goal in the finals in the USA and were eliminated at the group stage, while the Dutch lost in the quarter finals to eventual champions Brazil.
The elimination is more disappointing when considering the side drew its home games against both Norway and the Netherlands despite leading in both matches. The calibre of English players was high enough that they had reached the semi-finals four years earlier, and would reach the Euro semi-finals two years later.
Norway's failure to progress at the finals suggests they should have been beatable for a nation with England's apparent player resources.
2014: Early defeats and a tepid draw
In 2014, England qualified but then lost their first two games, against Italy and Uruguay, and were eliminated even before they played out a 0-0 draw with group winners Costa Rica.
That Italy also failed to get out of the group shows the group was very tight, but the fact that Uruguay could not get past the last 16 is telling. Costa Rica beat Greece on penalties in the round of 16, but then went out on penalties against the Netherlands.
Other sides have had bad runs
So, I think it's reasonable to say England struggle when they come up against high quality
opposition, but they are not regular flops. Like countries such as France, Spain and the Netherlands, England has had very good periods and very poor ones.
France failed to qualify in 1990 and 1994 before winning on home soil in 1998; the Dutch failed to qualify in 1982 and 1986 and have never won the tournament, but were European champions in 1988; Spain missed out in 1970 and 1974, and have only made it to the last four twice, in 1950 and then when they won the whole shebang in 2010.
Only one major upset loss, ever
In terms of major upsets, only the legendary loss to the 1-0 USA in 1950 was really seismic. And despite that loss, it was Spain that won the group with ease and beat England 1-0 in the final match. This was an era more notable for English ignorance of, and therefore vulnerability to, foreign tactics than it was for poor English play or players.
That astonishing loss to the USA is an isolated upset defeat at the World Cup itself. Usually, poor performances result in draws (e.g.: Morocco in 1986, Algeria in 2010) rather than defeats.
Ask the Italians, French and Germans about upsets
Compare that with reigning champions France losing to Senegal in 2002, or Argentina going down to Cameroon in 1990, while Italy's losses to North Korea (1966) and South Korea (2002) were as astonishing as West Germany's defeats at the hands of Algeria in 1982 and East Germany in 1974.
Crucially, England don't tend to get over bad performances and build a winning campaign, whereas West Germany and Argentina did when they went on to reach the finals in 1982 and 1990 respectively. And in 1974, West Germany managed to ride out a group stage defeat to go on and win the tournament, as did Spain in 2010.
But there is no genuine comparison in English World Cup history to the Italian loss to South Korea in the last 16 in 2002, or of the French defeat to Senegal and subsequent failure to get out of their group that same year. Nor has there been the sort of wipe-out and collapse that Spain suffered as champions in 2014, when they were beaten 5-1 by the Netherlands in their opening match and then 2-0 by Chile to go out at the group stage.
England will probably do OK
So, do not expect England to be able to roll over top sides at the tournament, but do have realistic expectations of progress.
Their history suggests they will qualify from the group stage, but not without some difficulty, and will then lose to a good side in the knockout phase.
That's not bad; it's par for the course. Anything more and it's a genuine triumph; anything less and it's a rare failure.
